Record numbers of Russian drones attack Kyiv and have made numerous waives of attacks on other Ukrainian cities, seeking to saturate Ukrainian air defenses. These attacks have been increasing in recent weeks, taking a considerable psychological toll on the Ukrainian civil population. President Donald Trump as in mentioned in this report from CNN has stated that he has made “no progress” towards a ceasefire in a recent call with President Vladimir Putin. Investments in Russia’s production of the Geran-2, derived from the Iranian Shahed-136 though increasingly modified, has greatly added to the striking power of Russian forces in the conflict when engaging fixed targets.
Russian Drones Integrating AI Chips
A recent report from the Ukrainian Military Intelligence has indicated that these drones are being modified with limited artificial intelligence and EO/IR cameras along with other modifications to reduce the impact of jamming on operations. It is likely that Russia will continue to modify the Geran-2 platform to suit operational needs in Ukraine, with Russia supposedly considering a jet powered version. It is unknown how much Russian wartime experience has been absorbed by the Iranians as well. Ukrainian military intelligence claims that some recent captured drones were manufactured in Iran and delivered to Russia. It is difficult at this time to accurately assess what the production capacity is for Geran-2 or more advanced rumored Geran-3 would be inside of Russia, but it is clear that efforts have been made to shift more production capability to Russian firms. Russia is unable to make advanced AI-chips like the NVIDIA Jetson Orin and many other components in Geran-2 production and is likely to continue use of dual-use drone imports. Another feature of another feature of note is a datalink that would separate Russian drones from Iranian versions, allowing for operator input of the drone throughout its phase of flight.
They’re all Chinese Drones
While it is unlikely that final assembly of these Geran-2 one-way attack drones was made in China, many of the components that make this drone possible will most certainly come from Chinese factories. Final assembly of Geran-2s has been see in Special Technology Center (STC) factories around Saint Petersburg, with STC also producing other Russian drones. These drones such as the Orlan-10 have been found to include many foreign components as well. It is increasingly challenging to restrict the flow of drone components in a globalized marketplace, where many components often have dual-uses. The use of “lawfare” and sanctions is a kind of crutch that is unlikely to be effective at stemming production capacity of Russian drones. Especially as Russia shares a large land border with China.
Chinese drone components also make up the majority of Ukrainian drone parts. Something that can never be stressed enough is that the mass use of small drones in the Russo-Ukraine War is only possible due to the massive industrial capacity of the Chinese electronics industry to manufacture drone components at scale. These components can help Ukraine manufacture numerous small drones, but they are not a substitute for more advanced long-range striking capabilities that would threaten Russian industry. Even if Western countries had enough of those weapons to export to Ukraine, the vast Russian territory makes any air campaign targeting strategic production capacity of the Russian military extremely difficult.
The Geran-2/Shahed-136 can be intercepted by a range of weapons system employed by Ukraine, but the ability to continue these bombardments will likely continue even if Ukraine receives additional support. Patriot missile systems that are mentioned in this CNN report are not ideal for this role as they are expensive and limited in production. Whether President Donald Trump exports more Patriot missiles or not to Ukraine, the AFU will find it increasingly challenging to intercept in a cost-effective manner the growing production capacity of Russia’s flying artillery shell, the Geran-2.
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