As the Israel-Iran War, or Operation Rising Lion, depending on what name one wishes to use approaches its first week, the state of conflict is coming into view. In this post, we’ll look at a video clip from an Al Jazeera panel interview on the state of the Israel-Iran conflict.
Clues in Plain Sight – Iran’s Skies Are Not Open
The former Jordanian Air Force general and pilot Mamoun Abu Nowar noticed something that would make for a great question. He states that it is hard to believe that a country claiming air supremacy would allow for surface to surface missile launches to occur in daylight, as has been occurring over the past few days. The easiest answer to that is that the country making that claim doesn’t have air supremacy or freedom of action over Iran.
Again, as of the time of publishing this post, it is the assessment of UDS Aviation that Israel does NOT have air supremacy over Iran, in terms of being able to operate at will in Iranian airspace. Israel may at times be able to achieve local temporary air supremacy over key targets, and edges of western Iran. Even despite President Trump’s explicit statement that Iranian “sky scanners” have all been eliminated, no proof both in terms of footage of strikes, verifiable social media posts, or operational indications would seem to corroborate this position. Why is this important? A false sense of superiority serves several purposes, first it risks regime stability if Iranians fear they can be attacked at will anywhere in their country. This was simulated by sabotage teams during the opening phase of hostilities using quad-copters and one-way attack drones constructed in safehouses in Iran along with standoff munitions to target Iranian air defenses and C2 nodes. Outside of Iran, the illusion of air supremacy combined with influence operations serve to convince a US audience that a “limited strike” on Iran will be safe and easy.
Strategic Air Denial and Asymmetric Air Warfare
There is no indication that Iran has involved its manned fighter aircraft which likely remain in hardened shelters located inside of mountains, any operational F-14s are likely in one of these facilities. There also was no expectation that Iran’s antique Air Force was likely to play much a part at all in this type of conflict. A war of exhaustion has always been Iran’s strategy and they’ve largely constructed their weapons and supporting logistics infrastructure to match that.
Justin Bronk’s assessment has several flaws, though curiously has a slip of the tongue inserting Ukrainian for Israeli at one point, the most notable being the switch of Israel’s air campaign to freefall bombs, Paveway, JDAM etc. Apart from a few unverified photos, the only source for this claim seems to come from the IDF’s social media accounts. Something many “OSINT” accounts are quick to claim to notice and amplify, rather than ask why they’re being shown this by a country that is so aware of OPSEC that it blurs aircrew faces in official videos. Dr Bronk ignores the real question, if Israel’s interceptors will run out before Iran’s ballistic missiles stockpiles are depleted. The attrition of Israeli ISR drones over Iran and stockpiles of standoff munitions also have to be added to the calculation now as lack of a sustained air campaign over a country Israel claims to operate with impunity looks awfully suspicious.
Blind to Comparisons: Ukraine Analogy
The western consensus established through think-tanks and narrative shaping media engagements often praise Ukraine rightfully for their rapid drone innovation, decentralized production, and operational resilience. It can be uncomfortable to apply that same assessment to an adversary, but Ukraine uses drones far more in alignment with Iran’s way of war than it does with NATO or Israeli style drone warfare. Iran has long aligned their war industry with their war aims, and now can grind down Israeli IADS while presenting a portfolio of difficult scenarios for the US and gulf states if not the world with the ability to target gulf oil infrastructure at will.
We will cover the strategic position of the two countries in another post, but Iran’s position indicates that it controls the initiative barring the entry of the US into the conflict. One has to ask oneself. If it was REALLY true that Israel owned the skies over Iran, why even ask the US to intervene at all? Why not just land Special Forces at Fordow and eliminate the site that way, as Israel has done before in other circumstances? Israel seems to have no qualms about operating on Iranian soil with commando teams, saboteurs or other such forces. In a show of force over a Hezbollah funeral from last year, the Israeli Air Force has no issue performing a parade formation flyover of the event, where is the parade formation over Tehran? Maybe we’ll see one, but until that happens, this is a war of depletion clearly favoring one side.
