Posted 16 June 2025
Much of the world was shocked to hear that the opening blows of Israel’s attack on Iran came with assassinations of military leaders and civilian scientists in their homes along with what appears to be a coordinated cyber and drone attack on Iranian air defenses and strategic nuclear sites. In what initially was reported as airstrikes seem to largely be the result of drones and ATGMs, operated by infiltrated saboteurs. Some of these drones seem to be manufactured from improvised materials, with control antenna protruding from the tips of the wings. In the style of the famous MQ-1, these drones have an anhedral V-tail with rectangular wings with ailerons.
Clandestine Israeli OWA Drone Activity
Unconfirmed reports have indicated that Israeli intelligence operatives have detonated car bombs and set tires ablaze in an attempt to create the impression of a larger air campaign. Iranian news sources have shown dozens of largely Indian nationals, though there is no way to verify these claims, that these activities ceased when these teams were apprehended would seem to indicate some connection. Despite the fears they can raise, drones of this size are limited in the targets that they can successfully attack and it would seem obvious that the ability for teams to operate in an environment without the element of surprise is quite limited. Commercially available drone controllers are seen in some images, indicating that operators likely guided these to their targets by remote control, requiring line of sight, though it is possible a camera could be equipped in the forward fuselage. The use of these types of systems would indicate that this effort is apart of an ongoing struggle for narrative control to create a more favorable view of Israeli air supremacy than the facts on the ground. Both in terms of sowing panic amongst the Iranians and framing domestic US perception of a defeated Iran, easing US involvement.
Anyone claiming to know exactly what is going on at the moment would be disingenuous and it is likely that even those with the ability to know don’t have a complete picture. What is curious, was the Israel Defense Force X account posting an image of what they claimed to be two Iranian F-14 “Tomcats” preparing to launch on a sortie. The F-14 is famous in aviation circles as the ride of “Maverick” in the Paramount Pictures 1986 film “Top Gun” and briefly again in the sequel to that movie. What is curious about this statement is that it is a lie. The aircraft are derelict and have been in the same location for years, which would be a solid indication given the heavy maintenance this type of aircraft is known for that they were more or less junk stashed away on an airfield. Why would such a public facing account make such a brazen false statement? There shouldn’t be any doubt that the IDF knows what an operational F-14 looks like, and if there was video of one being struck while armed or about to depart on a sortie, one would think that would the clip to choose. In fact, the weapon that impacts these is not from an F-35 operating freely over Tehran, but a drone.
When it comes to the F-14, just as claims of downed F-35s, or MiG-28s, we’re going to need to see a picture.
In some videos the indicators “EKF” short for Extended Kalman Filter is visible, indicating a failure in the drone flight control system’s velocity and position data. This is usually accompanied by a “Vibe” error indicating vibrations altering system information. This is also seen on the Ardupilot HUD screen during the Operation Spiderweb attacks, likely from being transported in a truck on Russian roads. What does this tell us about many of these strikes? That they’re not likely to be conducted by a sustained air campaign, but by small sabotage teams inside of Iran. How many of these teams remain would be impossible to know, but it is likely that they’re effectiveness is degraded if any remain active. That they’re releasing these drones with Vibe and EKF alerts likely means they’re hastily launched, possibly indicating fears of Iranian internal security forces discovering the operators.
War Aims & the Limits of Air Power
We can start by looking at the name chosen for this operation. Rising Lion, the lion being on the former Shah of Iran’s flag before the 1979 revolution. From the beginning of hostilities and has been the case in any war, narrative control has been the name of the game. The idea that Iran is defenseless and open to Israeli airstrikes at will adds to a sense of panic and loss of control by Iran’s ruling government. UDS Aviation doesn’t track social media influence operations, though it has been clear that many social media accounts pushed a narrative that Iranian planes were evacuating Iranian officials into exile. It seems now that was never true either.
As supporting evidence, we see a shift in targets by the Israelis. With their clandestine drone teams eliminated or extracted, the rate of reported strikes in the capital Tehran has dropped considerably. What has been hit has been an Iranian state TV station while an anchor was on air, as well as the Iranian foreign ministry. This shift in targets to largely symbolic civilian buildings of no military consequence could hint at a lack of ISR over Iran, and much as the US Navy found in Yemen, a lack of targets of military significance. It is challenging to determine the operational state of Israel’s airbases, and if Iranian ballistic missiles which have been seen on news channels across the globe impacting Israeli oil & gas infrastructure and military command centers has had an impact on air operations. It is clear that Israel’s missile defense capabilities are not performing as have been claimed in the past, with 99% effectiveness.
So What Is Going On In the Skies Over Iran?
It is highly likely that Israeli F-35s supported by US and UK tankers are able to operate in Iranian airspace, though it is far more likely that many of the missions with manned aircraft are flown by Israel’s more numerous other types, F-16I and F-15Is carrying standoff munitions. These would be supported by Israel’s numerous and much more sophisticated drones, many of which may also carry munitions themselves. Despite some press reports claiming extensive modifications to Israel’s F-35 fleet it is difficult to see how that would be done while retaining an effective combat load. Smaller Spice-250s have been seen in images captured by Iranians and given Israel’s long history of targeting C2 assets, it is likely they’re continuing this strategy. Reports on downed aircraft have been made, but no proof has been offered by the Iranians, though we’ve seen as of yet no proof from the Israelis that operational F-14s or any other Iranian tactical aircraft have been struck. The truth of the air war is likely to remain a mystery to those on the outside of these operations, but it is unlikely that manned aircraft will play the deciding role, most certainly for the Iranians. Drones and drone production will dominate much of the air war, with Iran’s sizeable stockpiles dispersed throughout the country.
Disclaimer: This is an extremely challenging environment to determine what is happening in the world, with information warfare an integral part of events that are unfolding. UDS Aviation will try to maintain an even assessment of events, if that is from an American perspective. As part of that it should be noted that most Iranian news agencies will be annotated by affiliation, as many who might read these articles are unfamiliar with these agencies. All warfare is deception, so expect as we do that we do not have the full picture.
